MODULE 4: " What are the odds?" (WATO) tool at DNA Painter

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These notes are for participants in the Society of Australian Genealogists' program, Analysing your AncestryDNA results. Others are welcome to use these notes for their personal research. Please contact me at chrisw9953[at]gmail[dot]com for other uses.  I'll strive to update the notes as there are further developments or my understanding of the area grows.

Remember that WATO is useful to record the relationship between your DNA matches where they share common ancestors. Using WATO to examine hypotheses is a more advanced technique that will take time to understand. From reading, watching and looking at WATOs, these are a few things I keep in my mind as I develop WATOs. The fact that WATO only looks at one ancestral line leads into the search for the two ancestral lines to add important evidence of the relationship between the target and DNA matches.  


Working out the relationship with a DNA match

This can be difficult because-
  • There’s a range in the amount of shared DNA for relationships beyond parent/child with many overlaps in the shared DNA between relationships
  • The amount of shared DNA is more variable the more distant the relationship
  • Groups of relationships share the same amount of DNA but with different probabilities

Suggestions for working out the relationships

  • If the tester and the DNA match are at AncestryDNA or MyHeritageDNA, use the company's predicted relationships.
AncestryDNA - Showing possible DNA relationships
  • In other situations, use the "Shared cM Project 4.0 tool V4" at DNA Painter.

When you are comparing a testers shared cM with two matches, you MAY be able to use "Shared cM Project tool v4 with option to add a second amount" at DNA Painter. As I demonstrated, this tool can miss some relationships. For this reason, it is my preference to use WATO. You can read about using this tool HERE.

What happens when you're looking for the relationship between the tester and two or more matches with a known relationship?

  1. Perform multiple iterations using the predictions for the shared cM between the tester and matches to see which hypotheses fits all the matches or
  2. Much easier is the "What are the Odds?" (WATO) tool at DNA Painter. It's important to note that when the tester and matches are at AncestryDNA, I recommend that you "switch to beta probabilities" when you're generating hypotheses.






References

DNAPainter.com has excellent help available at https://dnapainter.com/help

You can also keep unto date with the DNAPainter blog at https://dnapainter.com/blog/

Here are video link where Jonny Perl explains WATO-
https://familytreewebinars.com/download.php?webinar_id=1288

If you have a subscription to Legacy Family Tree Webinars, Michelle Leonard Webinar - Using Chromosome Browsers, Segment Data and Triangulation
https://familytreewebinars.com/download.php?webinar_id=1276

Roberta Estes’s DNA Painter - Chromosome Sudoku for Genetic Genealogy Addicts
https://dna-explained.com/2018/03/28/dna-painter-chromosome-sudoku-for-genetic-genealogy-addicts/

Roberta Estes’s DNA Painter - Mining Vendor Matches to Paint Your Chromosomes
https://dna-explained.com/2018/04/04/dnapainter-mining-vendor-matches-to-paint-your-chromosomes/

Roberta Estes’s DNA Painter - Touring the Chromosome Garden
https://dna-explained.com/2018/06/18/dna-painter-touring-the-chromosome-garden/

Roberta Estes - Triangulation in action at DNAPainter
https://dna-explained.com/2020/04/01/triangulation-in-action-at-dnapainter/

Andrew Millard’s What are the odds?  A tool for fitting a DNA match into a family tree
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf-Zeid6L2Y

Leah Larkin (The DNA Geek)-
Science the Heck out of Your DNA, Parts 1 to 7
https://thednageek.com/science-the-heck-out-of-your-dna-part-1/

Working with WATO: Centrimorgan Adjustments 
https://thednageek.com/working-with-wato-centimorgan-adjustments/

DNA Painter User Group - Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/groups/dnapainter/

DNA Painter: What are the Odds? (WATO) - Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/groups/WhatAretheOdds/

Deductive Chromosome Mapping
Blaine Bettinger - https://familytreewebinars.com/download.php?webinar_id=1233

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